Lyon’s home setting and the 34–21 win in the April 2025 meeting support a modest home lean, but three straight league losses are a real warning. The Sharks have confirmed a much changed side with Hatton at eight, Lewies at lock and Hendrikse back at flyhalf. The actual selected home XV remains unverified, which limits how much can be inferred from the visitors’ missing names.

Ganyane, Bester and Jacobs are the selected Sharks front row; van Heerden, Mavesere and Julius provide replacement options. Those roles matter more than simply counting absent Springboks. A further Lyon breakdown in defence would give Hendrikse and the visitors’ backline a route, even with an unfamiliar pack. Scorecard net +2; raw house home probability 69.1%, raw home margin 4.70. The 1–10-point band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval. Combined-total prior from 10 distinct completed matches in the two explicit form windows, 2026-05-09 to 2026-10-10: median 63 points. The projected 63 adjusts only for integer score parity with the rounded 5-point margin. Cross-competition and selection changes limit transfer; no unsupported weather adjustment.