Edinburgh are the Friday pick with the clearest recent team case: three URC wins, including 34–29 at Ulster, 17–13 over Stormers and 29–12 at Zebre. Graham returns and Gilchrist strengthens the bench. Toulon’s 0–28 at Montpellier is the recent away performance that makes their 29–15 home win over Racing less reassuring.

Toulon have selected Gros, Lucchesi and Gigashvili in the front row and retain White, Frisch and Jaminet behind them. That is a credible route to disrupting Edinburgh’s rhythm; Baubigny, Ludlam and Serin give the visitors closing options. Edinburgh’s three wins in the retrieved H2H sample support the call, with only the December 2025 meeting carrying much current relevance. Scorecard net +7; raw house home probability 77.5%, raw home margin 8.95. The 4–14-point band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval. Combined-total prior from 10 distinct completed matches in the two explicit form windows, 2026-05-09 to 2026-10-10: median 40 points. The projected 41 adjusts only for integer score parity with the rounded 9-point margin. Cross-competition and selection changes limit transfer; no unsupported weather adjustment.