Black Lion at Avchala is a provisional model lean built mainly on the home setting. The retrieved European sample is older and includes a 31–28 win at Montauban, losses to Montpellier and Zebre, and a 0–52 defeat at Connacht. It does not establish a current performance advantage over Ospreys.

Ospreys arrive after beating Dragons 38–31, with Watkin, Foketi and Creighton selected and Morgan Morris available later. Black Lion’s full current selection remains unverified, so the personnel dimensions are ungraded. The number is an output of the house prior, not grounds for promoting this as a headline pick. Scorecard net +2; raw house home probability 69.1%, raw home margin 4.70. The 1–10-point band is an editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval. Combined-total prior from 9 distinct completed matches in the two explicit form windows, 2025-12-06 to 2026-10-09: median 54 points. The projected 55 adjusts only for integer score parity with the rounded 5-point margin. Cross-competition and selection changes limit transfer; no unsupported weather adjustment.